Interest Rate Roundup

Wednesday, September 20, 2006

The latest on bonds

Bonds had a big up day on the benign PPI report. They followed through with some gains today, but gave back a few ticks in the wake of the Federal Reserve Board statement, which you can read here. I'm not ready to give up my bearish stance yet. I still believe bond prices are stretched -- really, really stretched.

The Fed bascially just confirmed that no rate cuts are imminent ... but the deeply inverted curve is priced as if we'll get at least one, if not two, moves lower in the federal funds rate in the very near future. Credit spreads are still tight, an indication the corporate and junk bond markets aren't all that worried about the economy. And the stock market is flirting with all-time highs. Seems to me at least one of these markets has to be "wrong" about the prospects for the economy and/or interest rates.

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see how we close this week (where prices/yields settle out), now that the Fed meeting is behind us.


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