Technical Take on the 10s

Back on December 6, I said 10-year Treasury futures looked like they were at a crossroads -- testing a downtrend that goes back a few years. Prices failed roughly around that level. Now, let's zero in on the shorter-term picture. You can see in this daily chart that 10-year Notes broke out to the upside on heavy volume in late November. But now we're pounding away at the breakout level (roughly 108 20/32 - 108 22/32). Will the mega-breakout prove to be a fake out? That would likely catch a lot of market players by surprise.