10-year T-Note at a crossroads...

We've had a quite a run off the bottom in interest rate futures. Yields have fallen at the same time. Now, we're at a crucial technical crossroads.

I charted the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note continuous future here. You can see we're testing a downtrend connecting the peaks in June 2003 and June 2005. A break above, say, 109 18/32 would be significant. On a yield basis, the corresponding uptrend support comes into play around 4.36%-4.40%.