Interest Rate Roundup

Friday, December 15, 2006

bonds close DOWN

What do you know? The bonds actually finished DOWN in price by a tick and rates finished pretty much flat. I said today's close would be important, and I believe you simply cannot ignore the fact bonds FELL today given the supposedly "great" news on inflation.

Once again, I'll wonder out loud: Could the best news on inflation be behind us? I mean, am I the only one who noticed that crude oil prices appear to have bottomed and are now heading toward $65 a barrel? What about the RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index, which bottomed on 10/4/06? Or the fact global economic growth remains relatively strong? Couldn't these forces at least stem the DECLINE in inflation, if not help boost prices in the coming months.

And one last thing ... did anyone notice the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's median consumer price index? It's another measure of core inflation. Not only did it rise 0.2% in November (vs. the core CPI, which was unchnaged), but it's also now rising at a 3.7% annual rate. Just something to mull over this fine Friday afternoon.


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