Interest Rate Roundup

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

New home orders disaster

You know what you keep hearing on Wall Street? That the housing bust is over ... that the housing stocks are fine ... that there's nothing to worry about any more. But you know what the DATA keeps showing? An ongoing deterioration in orders and leading indicators, like the Mortgage Bankers Association's purchase mortgage index.

Just look at the news out of BZH and TOL this morning -- TOL reported a whopping 55% YOY decline in net new orders for the quarter ended October 31. That compares with a 45% YOY decline in the fiscal third quarter ended July 31. BZH net orders were down 58% YOY. In the June quarter, they were down 15.8%. Especially interesting was the Florida-only orders number for BZH -- 70 in the September quarter vs. 696 a year ago. That's a freaking 90% decline!! Does that look like a "soft landing" to you.

I would LOVE for someone to show me the improvement in these numbers. But the fact is, order trends are getting worse, not better.


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