Dissecting the Oct. jobs report ...
So overall nonfarm payrolls rose in October (92,000), but less than expected. Where was the weakness? Where was the strength?
Sectors with notable gains:
mining (+4,600)
clothing/accessories stores (+6,000)
transportation/warehousing (+6,800)
Publishing (+3,700)
Finance and insurance (+6,400)
Management and technical consulting (+11,700)
Administrative and waste services (+24,000)
Health care and social assistance (+27,600)
Food service and drinking places (26,700)
Local government (+39,000) -- big teacher hiring
Sectors with notable losses:
Construction of buildings (-6,100)
Specialty trade contractors (-22,000) -- residential contractors took a huge hit, while nonresidential was up several thousand
Durable goods manufacturing (-19,000) -- autos, furniture, fabricated metal, and wood products particularly bad
Nondurable goods manufacturing (-20,000) -- plastics and rubber worst off, but lots of categories saw little hits
Real estate/rental/leasing (-4,800)
This isn't a complete list of all categories, but some trends are clear: Residential real estate and sectors related to it are in big trouble ... commercial real estate is still okay ... and food service/health care/entertainment/local government sectors are where the biggest job growth can be found right now.
Whether that holds up, though, depends on the broader economy. I have my suspicions about retail and commercial real estate -- both could get whacked if consumer spending continues to show signs of slowing and/or if hiring doesn't pick up. Those factors would hurt retail hiring, demand for mall and office space, etc.
Sectors with notable gains:
mining (+4,600)
clothing/accessories stores (+6,000)
transportation/warehousing (+6,800)
Publishing (+3,700)
Finance and insurance (+6,400)
Management and technical consulting (+11,700)
Administrative and waste services (+24,000)
Health care and social assistance (+27,600)
Food service and drinking places (26,700)
Local government (+39,000) -- big teacher hiring
Sectors with notable losses:
Construction of buildings (-6,100)
Specialty trade contractors (-22,000) -- residential contractors took a huge hit, while nonresidential was up several thousand
Durable goods manufacturing (-19,000) -- autos, furniture, fabricated metal, and wood products particularly bad
Nondurable goods manufacturing (-20,000) -- plastics and rubber worst off, but lots of categories saw little hits
Real estate/rental/leasing (-4,800)
This isn't a complete list of all categories, but some trends are clear: Residential real estate and sectors related to it are in big trouble ... commercial real estate is still okay ... and food service/health care/entertainment/local government sectors are where the biggest job growth can be found right now.
Whether that holds up, though, depends on the broader economy. I have my suspicions about retail and commercial real estate -- both could get whacked if consumer spending continues to show signs of slowing and/or if hiring doesn't pick up. Those factors would hurt retail hiring, demand for mall and office space, etc.
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