Interest Rate Roundup

Monday, April 10, 2006

Inflation data -- coming soon to a market near you!

Bonds are taking a breather today after an ugly week. The next major catalyst? Probably March inflation numbers. Import/export prices up first on April 13, followed by PPI on April 18 and CPI on April 19.

The headline inflation figures should look pretty nasty given the March surge in oil and gasoline prices. But the Fed pretends that oil and food costs don't matter (which makes perfect sense, of course. Who drives, eats, ships packages, flies in planes, uses electricity, heats their homes, or does anything else that involves energy use? Yes, I'm being purposefully irreverent and facetious). So it's the "core" PPI and CPI that'll matter most.

I'm guessing even the core PPI will look ugly since virtually every commodity under the sun has been surging in price. CPI? Tough to say. In the real world, it's more expensive to get by each and every month. In the CPI world, who knows?


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