Interest Rate Roundup

Thursday, April 06, 2006

Long, Long-term Bond chart

Regardless of the short-term trend for bond prices, this long bond monthly YIELD chart is very telling. You can see that we're currently testing and/or breaking through a super-long-term downtrend. I've drawn that trendline from the 1994 peak in yields through the pre-bubble-blow-up 1999 peak and the April 2004 peak.

Tough to say what will happen after 8:30 tomorrow, when the March employment report will hit. But it's possible that yields are making a bona fide, major break to the upside. And that should get the market's attention.


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