Interest Rate Roundup

Thursday, March 20, 2008

How 'bout them T-bills

The stock market might not be reflecting a state of panic out there. But Treasury bills sure are. Three-month T-bills are now yielding roughly 52 basis points. Yes, I mean roughly one-half of one percent ... against a federal funds rate of 2.25%. Bloomberg calls today's low yield (0.387%) the lowest going all the way back to at least 1954. That means we have undercut the "deflation scare lows" from 2003.

Now, if you want to see a REALLY scary chart, check out this one juxtaposing 3-month T-bill yields against S&P futures. Bill yields are the white line ... S&Ps the red. If bill yields are a leading indicator of stock prices on the way down, like they were on the way up (notice how bill yields topped out before stocks did in the recent rally off the 2002-2003 bear market low), we're in BIG trouble. Oh, and enjoy your weekend. LOL.


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