Interest Rate Roundup

Friday, August 04, 2006

Questioning the "No more Fed = Buy bank stocks" mantra

"No more Fed = Buy Bank stocks."
"No more Fed = Buy Bank stocks."
"No more Fed = Buy Bank stocks."
"No more Fed = Buy Bank stocks."
"No more Fed = Buy Bank stocks."

That's what passes for deep, cogent analysis on CNBC and Wall Street these days. I don't know how many pundits have paraded before the cameras to say some version thereof.

But does this mantra really make sense? Banks are loaded up with more residential and commercial real estate loan exposure than at any time in history. They've been giving mortgages to anyone with a pulse. Is no one with half a brain concerned about credit deterioration, especially in a slowing economy?

Also, during the rising rate phase of the past couple years, I don't know how many bank stock experts said "It's different this time. These guys make all their money from fees, not the yield curve." Now, we're told "Buy bank stocks. If the yield curve steepens, they'll coin money." Again, am I the only one who sees a disconnect here? Won't fee income fall if banks are making fewer loans due to slumping home prices, cooling commercial borrowing needs, and all that?

One last question: If everyone "knows" to buy the financials when the Fed stops hiking, isn't there a good chance they've ALREADY bought their shares? What happens if the Fed DOES pause? Who's going to be left to buy? Just wondering out loud here.

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