Interest Rate Roundup

Friday, July 14, 2006

1 of 3 inflation reports down

Import/export price data was released for June today. Some details:

Overall prices were up just 0.1% after a 1.7% rise in May. But in June, oil and gas prices were at their recent low. Since then, they've surged. So July should look worse on the headline.

A "core" number in the report -- “non-fuel import prices” -- surged 0.7% in June. That tied May's rise, which was the highest going back to 2002.

All of that said, bonds are flat to slightly up on weaker retail sales figures for June and weak consumer confidence. We've seen a battle royale between growth and inflation in the past several days. The growth figures ... and stocks ... have been weak. The inflation figures have been strong, as has oil. Who will win out? We'll see...


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