Interest Rate Roundup

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

5-year note auction okay, but not as good as the 2s; Bonds massacred again

Well, we survived the second leg of the government's debt sales just now. Uncle Sam was able to foist $35 billion in 5-year notes on the market at a yield of 2.31%. That was slightly better than pre-auction talk of 2.335%. Indirect bidders took down 44.2% of the notes being sold. The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.32.

Both of those readings were higher than the last auction. But they were nowhere near as strong (on a relative basis) as what we saw in the 2-year sale yesterday. For instance, you only have to go back to February to find a 5-year auction with a higher indirect bidder reading (48.9% on 2/25). And you only have to go back to November 2008 to find a higher B2C ratio (2.44 on 11/25).

UPDATE: My call in December that long-term Treasuries were caught up in the "Biggest bubble of all" is looking right on target. The bonds simply can't get out of their way. Long bond futures are down about 1 16/32 as I write, while 10-year Treasury Note yields have shot up by more than 10 basis points to 3.65%. Guess printing, borrowing, and spending money like a drunken sailor isn't the best strategy in the world, eh? Or as I said earlier, you're doing a heck of a job Brownie ... I mean, Bernanke.


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