Interest Rate Roundup

Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Fed Minutes: Party on Dudes!

I just did a quick and dirty read through of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's September 18 meeting. This was the meeting at which policymakers decided to slash both the federal funds rate and the discount rate by 50 basis points.

The general sentiment expressed in those minutes: Foreign economic growth is great ... but we're worried more about growth than inflation here in the U.S. ... housing stinks (I mean, really, really stinks) ... the credit turmoil is really bad ... and even if the worst of the crisis passes soon, credit standards will likely remain tighter than they were in the pre-crisis days.

How I think financial markets participants will interpret them: The Fed will probably continue to throw easy money our way ... will continue to intervene whenever asset markets suffer, moral hazard be darned ... and will continue to essentially ignore $80 oil, $9 wheat, $740 gold, etc., etc. So go buy some more Chinese small caps. Or in the immortal words of Abraham Lincoln (as played by Robert Barron in Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure) -- "Party on Dudes!"

UPDATE: Looks like I was right. It was a raucous day on Wall Street with the Dow closing up 120 points at the close. Long bond futures gave up pre-minutes gains to finish roughly flat on the day, while the dollar index slid a bit further.


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