Interest Rate Roundup

Wednesday, May 09, 2007

It's Fed meeting day -- but does anybody care?

It's funny, but Fed meeting days just don't provoke the same level of excitement and angst for the market as they did in recent years. The prognosis is that officials will do nothing with rates and won't significantly change their post-meeting statement. Sure, there will be the usual parsing of every new syllable in the release. But it's just a bunch of noise, as far as I'm concerned, until it becomes clear the Fed is going to hike or cut -- and we're just not there yet.

That said, we should keep a close eye on how the bonds react (if at all). Treasuries have been trading largely sideways since last August. But 10-year T-Note futures are butting up against a long-standing technical downtrend line that dates back to early 2003. Multiple "tests" of that downtrend have failed ... so a high-volume break or failure here could be significant, purely from a technical standpoint.


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