Interest Rate Roundup

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Watch those bonds!

Whopper of a surprise on retail sales for November -- up 1% on the headline vs. a 0.2% forecast and up 1.1% excluding autos vs. a 0.3% forecast gain. We're seeing U.S. long bond futures get whacked (-21/32) and the 10-year Treasury yield challenging key upside resistance at 4.54%/4.55%. If we break above this yield level ... in a market where everybody and his brother is long bonds ... watch out. It could be a significant reversal. The next major catalysts for a move in bonds -- fundamentally speaking -- are November import/export prices (out tomorrow) and especially the November Consumer Price Index (out Friday)


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