Interest Rate Roundup

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

It's the inflation, stupid

Why the "experts" on CNBC just don't seem to get it, I don't know. But the fact is, every single indicator hitting the tape is pointing toward a big rise in inflation and inflation pressure. Just today, the Institute for Supply Management released its latest report on the service sector. Keep in mind these are APRIL numbers -- so they're as close to real time as you get in monthly data.

Not only was the overall index above expectations (63 vs. 60), the prices paid sub-index surged to 70.5 from 60.5 in March. The April reading is the highest since November. The group's manufacturing prices paid indicator also jumped -- to 71.5 in April from 66.5 a month earlier. That's also a six-month high.

Then there's all the stuff I've talked about before -- long term bond yields rising more than short-term ones, the nominal/TIPS yield spread blowing out, etc., etc. If former President Bill Clinton were still in office, he just might say: "It's the inflation, stupid!"


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